Cited 6 times since 2017 (0.8 per year) source: EuropePMC The British journal of surgery, Volume 104, Issue 8, 1 1 2017, Pages 964-976 Systematic review of mortality risk prediction models in the era of endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery. Lijftogt N, Luijnenburg TWF, Vahl AC, Wilschut ED, Leijdekkers VJ, Fiocco MF, Wouters MWJM, Hamming JF
Background
The introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) has reduced perioperative mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery. The objective of this systematic review was to assess existing mortality risk prediction models, and identify which are most useful for patients undergoing AAA repair by either EVAR or open surgical repair.
Methods
A systematic search of the literature was conducted for perioperative mortality risk prediction models for patients with AAA published since 2006. PRISMA guidelines were used; quality was appraised, and data were extracted and interpreted following the CHARMS guidelines.
Results
Some 3903 studies were identified, of which 27 were selected. A total of 13 risk prediction models have been developed and directly validated. Most models were based on a UK or US population. The best performing models regarding both applicability and discrimination were the perioperative British Aneurysm Repair score (C-statistic 0·83) and the preoperative Vascular Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Model (C-statistic 0·85), but both lacked substantial external validation.
Conclusion
Mortality risk prediction in AAA surgery has been modelled extensively, but many of these models are weak methodologically and have highly variable performance across different populations. New models are unlikely to be helpful; instead case-mix correction should be modelled and adapted to the population of interest using the relevant mortality predictors.
