Cited 15 times since 2021 (4 per year) source: EuropePMC Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology, Volume 23, Issue 6, 1 1 2021, Pages 887-897 Development and external validation of prediction models to predict implantable cardioverter-defibrillator efficacy in primary prevention of sudden cardiac death. Verstraelen TE, van Barreveld M, van Dessel PHFM, Boersma LVA, Delnoy PPHM, Tuinenburg AE, Theuns DAMJ, van der Voort PH, Kimman GP, Buskens E, Hulleman M, Allaart CP, Strikwerda S, Scholten MF, Meine M, Abels R, Maass AH, Firouzi M, Widdershoven JWMG, Elders J, van Gent MWF, Khan M, Vernooy K, Grauss RW, Tukkie R, van Erven L, Spierenburg HAM, Brouwer MA, Bartels GL, Bijsterveld NR, Borger van der Burg AE, Vet MW, Derksen R, Knops RE, Bracke FALE, Harden M, Sticherling C, Willems R, Friede T, Zabel M, Dijkgraaf MGW, Zwinderman AH, Wilde AAM
Aims
This study was performed to develop and externally validate prediction models for appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock and mortality to identify subgroups with insufficient benefit from ICD implantation.
Methods and results
We recruited patients scheduled for primary prevention ICD implantation and reduced left ventricular function. Bootstrapping-based Cox proportional hazards and Fine and Gray competing risk models with likely candidate predictors were developed for all-cause mortality and appropriate ICD shock, respectively. Between 2014 and 2018, we included 1441 consecutive patients in the development and 1450 patients in the validation cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.4 (IQR 2.1-2.8) years, 109 (7.6%) patients received appropriate ICD shock and 193 (13.4%) died in the development cohort. During a median follow-up of 2.7 (IQR 2.0-3.4) years, 105 (7.2%) received appropriate ICD shock and 223 (15.4%) died in the validation cohort. Selected predictors of appropriate ICD shock were gender, NSVT, ACE/ARB use, atrial fibrillation history, Aldosterone-antagonist use, Digoxin use, eGFR, (N)OAC use, and peripheral vascular disease. Selected predictors of all-cause mortality were age, diuretic use, sodium, NT-pro-BNP, and ACE/ARB use. C-statistic was 0.61 and 0.60 at respectively internal and external validation for appropriate ICD shock and 0.74 at both internal and external validation for mortality.
Conclusion
Although this cohort study was specifically designed to develop prediction models, risk stratification still remains challenging and no large group with insufficient benefit of ICD implantation was found. However, the prediction models have some clinical utility as we present several scenarios where ICD implantation might be postponed.
